From, article link

AP Online – Nov. 01, 2007

WASHINGTON_Pharmaceutical sales in the U.S. will drop to a third of global sales in 2008, from a 50 percent share two years ago, a report released Thursday says.

Prescription drugs sales in emerging economies in China, Brazil, Turkey, Mexico and elsewhere are booming but the gains will be offset by the loss of patent protection for profitable drugs worth $20 billion in annual sales in 2008, predicts health care research firm IMS Health.

Expected global sales growth of 5 percent to 6 percent, worth between $735 billion to $745 billion, in 2008 compares with 6 percent to 7 percent growth in 2006 that netted between $695 billion to $705 billion.

In the U.S., prescription drug sales growth of 4 percent to 5 percent, or $295 billion to $305 billion, is forecast by IMS Health.

U.S. patents for Johnson & Johnson’s schizophrenia treatment Risperdal and Merck & Co. Inc.’s osteoporosis medicine Fosamax will likely expire, helping drive global sales growth in generic drugs of 15 percent to $70 billion.

IMS expects 29 new drugs to launch next year, but most of them will target less common diseases, not offsetting lost sales of drugs like Merck’s Zocor, a widely used cholesterol-lowering drug that lost patent protection this year.

Generic manufacturers like Mylan Inc. and Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc. will continue to make inroads in emerging markets. IMS estimates prescription drug sales in China, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey and other emerging economies will account for 25 percent of the global market in 2008, although economic growth in the developing world won’t benefit brand-name manufacturers as much until those countries can afford more expensive, innovative medicines.

The IMS report of slowing sales growth comes as U.S. federal regulators have stepped up scrutiny of pharmaceuticals and grown more cautious about new drug approvals, especially in the aftermath of pulling a widely sold arthritis drug because of safety concerns.

In 2007, the Food and Drug Administration has slapped new warnings on drugs from GlaxoSmithKline plc, Amgen Inc. and Eli Lilly and Co. and rejected highly anticipated products from Sanofi-Aventis and others.

While drug makers say recently passed laws giving FDA additional powers to regulate drugs may ease the agency’s defensive stance, IMS foresees more warning labels and slower approvals.

“What we see is more information on drug usage becoming available and being mined to find risks and safety issues,” said Murray Aitken, a senior vice president with IMS Health. “Overall this means more uncertainty for companies, as well as for their ability to get products to patients.”

From, article link

NORWALK, Conn.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Nov 1, 2007 – The global pharmaceutical market is expected to grow at a 5 – 6 percent pace next year, compared with 6 – 7 percent in 2007, according to IMS Health’s 2008 Global Pharmaceutical Market and Therapy Forecast released today. The forecast, the leading annual industry indicator of market dynamics and therapy performance, predicts global pharmaceutical sales to expand to US$735 – 745 billion next year.

“In several respects, 2008 marks an important inflection point for the global pharmaceutical market,” says Murray Aitken, senior vice president, Healthcare Insight, IMS. “For the first time, the seven largest markets will contribute just half of overall pharmaceutical market growth, while seven emerging markets will contribute nearly 25 percent of growth worldwide. And, as the impact of established pharmaceuticals losing patent protection accelerates, we will see a decline for the first time in the size of the $370 – 380 billion audited market for primary care-driven drugs. In the coming year, biopharmaceutical and generics companies will more aggressively adjust their business models to manage through these inflections, capturing new opportunities in this changing market environment.”

In 2008, IMS expects drug treatment costs to decline in several major therapy areas where leading products have lost or will lose patent protection, and as generic drugs capture significant market share. These include lipid regulators, calcium channel blockers, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, osteoporosis therapies and proton pump inhibitors. The decline is most significant in the U.S. market – where treatment costs per day have declined 20 – 40 percent in 2007 in therapy areas impacted by the loss of market exclusivity for Norvasc(R), Zocor(R) and Zoloft(R).

“These treatment cost declines are expected to continue through next year,” said Aitken, who noted that in the case of osteoporosis therapies and proton pump inhibitors, expected entry of generics competition for Fosamax(R) and Protonix(R) will likely result in 10 – 25 percent reductions in drug treatment costs in these classes in 2008.

In its 2008 forecast, IMS identifies the following key market dynamics:

— Growth contribution from top seven markets falls. In the U.S. and the five largest European markets, sales growth in 2008 is expected to range from 4 – 5 percent. This marks a historic low for the U.S. Japan market growth is forecast to grow 1 – 2 percent next year, down from the 4 – 5 percent pace expected in 2007. Key factors limiting growth in these markets include: a leveling off of growth from the introduction of the Medicare Part D prescription drug benefit in the U.S.; patent expiration of branded products, and an associated increase in the use of lower-cost generics; increased pressure from payers to control costs and limit access to certain treatments; and heightened safety scrutiny and healthcare legislation that is slowing, and in some cases halting, the introduction of new medicines.

— “Pharmerging” market growth accelerates. The seven “pharmerging” markets of China, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, India, Turkey and Russia are expected to grow 12 – 13 percent next year, to $85 – 90 billion. In these markets, there is significantly greater access both to generic and innovative new medicines as primary care improves and becomes more available in rural areas, and as private health insurance becomes more commonly held. Ongoing economic growth in the developing world will continue to shift the focus away from infectious diseases and toward cardiovascular, diabetes and other chronic illnesses.

— Wave of genericization continues. Drugs with approximately $20 billion in annual sales will face patent expiry in 2008, similar to levels seen over the past two years. Leading products such as Risperdal(R), Fosamax(R), Topomax(R), Lamictal(R) and Depakote(R) are expected to lose market exclusivity in one or more major markets around the world next year. This will help drive growth of generics by 14 – 15 percent next year, to more than $70 billion. In 2008, more than two-thirds of all prescriptions written in the U.S. are expected to be for generics. New government contracting initiatives in Germany, and educational programs in Japan, Spain and Italy, will drive greater generics use in those markets. Also, generics competition within the biotech sector will rise as the biosimilar epoeitin alfa is marketed across Europe.

— Patient use of innovative specialty products expands. IMS anticipates up to 29 innovative new medicines will be launched in 2008 – 80 percent of which will be primarily prescribed by specialists. These include four new oncology drugs for treating melanoma, prostate cancer and acute myeloid leukemia. Products used in the treatment of oncology are expected to exceed $45 billion in value in 2008, contributing nearly 17 percent of audited market growth. Overall growth in the audited specialty-driven market is forecast to grow to $295 – 305 billion, reflecting 14 – 15 percent growth next year.

— Increased use of evidence supporting the value of medicines. Pharmaceutical companies, governments and other payers are using more sophisticated economic analyses to understand the impact of pharmacotherapies on healthcare budgets worldwide. Health Technology Assessment bodies at a national and regional level are growing in scope and influence across Europe. In the U.S., The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is expected to more aggressively seek demonstrable proof that it is receiving “value for money” from Medicare Part D and other government-funded programs. IMS also expects an increased willingness by payers and drug manufacturers to enter into “payment for results” arrangements, especially in the area of oncology.

— Safety issues increase level of uncertainty. Throughout 2008, IMS expects both more independent meta-analysis of broadly used drugs, and a move toward risk assessment based not only on scientific evidence, but also the views of legislators and juries. In the U.S., the FDA has established a Risk Communication Committee, a new arm designed to improve risk communication to the public. The FDA will make critical decisions in 2008 around post-marketing surveillance approaches in light of the provisions of the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA) of 2007, designed to enhance the agency’s ability to safeguard and advance public health. IMS anticipates more limited claims for newly approved medicines, the application of more “black box” warnings on labels, more clinical evidence required by regulators, and slower approvals. Overall, this raises the level of uncertainty faced by companies, as well as their ability to make products available to patients.

— Intellectual property rights challenged on multiple fronts. Intellectual property issues under review in 2008 potentially could have significant long-term effects on patent-holders. The issue of compulsory licensing by nations, court rulings on composition of matter and process patents, granting of patents in India, enforcement of IP rights in China, and reform of patent laws in the U.S. and Europe will all play out to some extent over the course of the year. Each of these areas adds uncertainty about the fundamental model underpinning the R&D-based pharmaceutical industry.

Implications for Pharmaceutical, Biotech and Generics Manufacturers

“These indicators paint the stark reality of a marketplace in transition,” said Aitken. “The actions being taken by companies to reinvent themselves will need to continue at an accelerated pace. Today, commercial strategies and tactics are being re-assessed to better align with future opportunities, while portfolio strategies are being adjusted to capture growth in emerging markets and reflect shifts in product values. In this market environment, building relationships directly with patients as they become better educated and take a more active role in their own healthcare also is essential. And, the industry must continue engaging the broader healthcare community in a rational and positive dialogue about the delivery of higher-quality healthcare to patients at lower cost.”

About the IMS 2008 Global Pharmaceutical Market and Therapy Forecast

The 2008 forecast for market and therapy performance is based on extensive analyses by IMS consulting and forecasting experts. It uses IMS Market Prognosis, a strategic market forecasting publication, and IMS Therapy Forecaster, a unique forecasting system based on detailed quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Combined, these two tools deliver the most accurate and statistically robust insight into pharmaceutical and healthcare trends in the world’s largest and most important emerging markets.

The forecasts take full account of key issues impacting the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries. Additional factors that may affect overall growth include major safety events resulting in product withdrawal or prescribing restrictions; shifts in regulatory approval standards from their current levels; the application of sudden cuts to drug spending levels; and public health crises. Growth is measured in constant dollars to avoid the influence of currency exchange rates; sales are calculated at the ex-manufacturer level.

About IMS

Operating in more than 100 countries, IMS Health (NYSE: RX) is the world’s leading provider of market intelligence to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries. With $2.0 billion in 2006 revenue and more than 50 years of industry experience, IMS offers leading-edge market intelligence products and services that are integral to clients’ day-to-day operations, including portfolio optimization capabilities; launch and brand management solutions; sales force effectiveness innovations; managed care and consumer health offerings; and consulting and services solutions that improve ROI and the delivery of quality healthcare worldwide. Additional information is available at


IMS Communications
Lance Longwell, 610-834-5338

By Arwa Damon
GUDDA, India (CNN) — In Gudda, a village with very little, residents are literally beaming. Just two years ago, villagers had never seen light after dark, unless it came from the moon. Then, solar light arrived and changed everything.

Children in Gudda stand on rooftops near a solar panel. Solar power first arrived two years ago.

“When the lanterns first arrived, the villagers asked, ‘What is this?’ ” says Hanuman Ram, the local solar engineer. “I explained to them how it worked. Then slowly, as people saw it, they said, ‘Wow, what a thing this is!’ ”

There are no real roads that lead to the tiny village in the state of Rajasthan in northwestern India, home to about 100 families. There are only thin strips of tar dotted with massive potholes that force vehicles into thick brush. Other times, cars have to maneuver over just dirt.

There is no electricity — power lines don’t extend out here. Water is scarce, too. At the village well, women balance jugs of water on their heads, deftly evading the livestock that saunters along. Visit the sites of Gudda with CNN’s Arwa Damon »

There are no electric power lines in Gudda, and villagers say solar light has changed their lives.

It’s a simple lifestyle of farming, tending to goats, caring for children and carrying out household chores — a daily routine that hasn’t changed much over the centuries.

That’s why light transformed Gudda. Villagers could play music at night. Children could study well past sundown. VideoWatch villagers smile as they light their solar lamps »

As Yamouna Groomis kneads dough for her family’s evening meal, she blows through a pipe every once in a while to keep a flame burning in an outdoor clay pit. Her days used to end when the sun went down. She smiles as she proudly flicks on a solar lamp.

“When I saw this light coming on for the first time, I was very happy,” she says.

The light is powered by a solar panel on her roof that charges a battery. Panels can be seen on almost every rooftop in Gudda.

Ram, the man credited with the transformation, doesn’t have a high school degree. But he did attend an institution about an hour away called Barefoot College, established 35 years ago with an emphasis on helping India’s rural population find solutions for their problems among themselves.

The college, in part funded by the Indian government, trains villagers all over India who have little or no education, giving them a range of skills to change their lives. The entire campus, which has amenities such as a library, meeting halls, open-air theater and labs, uses solar power.

On a recent visit to the main college campus, a group of village women were hard at work making solar cookers, which can boil a liter of water in eight minutes. They are part of the “Women Barefoot Solar Cooker Engineers Society” — six women who came together and started their own business.

Barefoot College serves an outlying community of 125,000 people. In a nearby village, women flock to a water desalinization and purification plant set up by the college and maintained by Barefoot graduates. The station, powered by solar panels, provides the area with a rare commodity: clean drinking water.

At the local store in Gudda, owner Ram Swarup puts his solar panels to maximum use. He says the solar lights have allowed him to increase his business by a third. The panels also have powered up the only DVD player and television in the village.

Partly paralyzed by polio, Swarup never dreamed that he would have so much in life. He says it took courage — and light. The villagers say that they now feel empowered — less reliant on a far-off government.

Even the village’s engineer is amazed. At Ram’s house, the solar lamps flicker to life. He smiles as he says that before, he didn’t even know what artificial light was, and now, he’s a solar power expert.

“I never saw light before,” he says. “How could I think that I could bring light here?”

Like most of the Barefoot graduates, he was selected to attend the college by his village elders. Now, every night when the lights flicker on, he says, he feels great.

With the extra earnings he’s made as a solar engineer, he’s made another of his childhood dreams come true. He purchased his favorite instrument, a harmonium, and now the family can gather around every night and listen to his music.

He says he hopes his daughter, now 14 years old, will follow in his footsteps and become a solar engineer. Ram’s 80-year-old mother, meanwhile, beams with pride about her son’s accomplishments: “I just wanted him to do something good for the village.”

Plan would harvest energy of human movement

July 25, 2007

Two graduate students at MIT’s School of Architecture and Planning want to harvest the energy of human movement in urban settings, like commuters in a train station or fans at a concert.

The so-called “Crowd Farm,” as envisioned by James Graham and Thaddeus Jusczyk, both M.Arch candidates, would turn the mechanical energy of people walking or jumping into a source of electricity. Their proposal took first place in the Japan-based Holcim Foundation’s Sustainable Construction competition this year.

A Crowd Farm in Boston’s South Station railway terminal would work like this: A responsive sub-flooring system made up of blocks that depress slightly under the force of human steps would be installed beneath the station’s main lobby. The slippage of the blocks against one another as people walked would generate power through the principle of the dynamo, a device that converts the energy of motion into that of an electric current.

The electric current generated by the Crowd Farm could then be used for educational purposes, such as lighting up a sign about energy. “We want people to understand the direct relationship between their movement and the energy produced,” says Jusczyk.

The Crowd Farm is not intended for home use. According to Graham and Jusczyk, a single human step can only power two 60W light bulbs for one flickering second. But get a crowd in motion, multiply that single step by 28,527 steps, for example, and the result is enough energy to power a moving train for one second.

And while the farm is an urban vision, the dynamo-floor principle can also be applied to capturing energy at places like rock concerts, too. “Greater movement of people could make the music louder,” suggests Jusczyk.

The students’ test case, displayed at the Venice Biennale and in a train station in Torino, Italy, was a prototype stool that exploits the passive act of sitting to generate power. The weight of the body on the seat causes a flywheel to spin, which powers a dynamo that, in turn, lights four LEDs.

“People tended to be delighted by sitting on the stool and would get up and down repeatedly,” recalls Graham.

Other people have developed piezo-electric (mechanical-to-electrical) surfaces in the past, but the Crowd Farm has the potential to redefine urban space by adding a sense of fluidity and encouraging people to activate spaces with their movement.

“Our intention was to think of it not as a high-tech mat that would be laid down somewhere, but to really integrate it into a new sort of building system,” Graham says.

The Crowd Farm floor is composed of standard parts that are easily replicated but it is expensive to produce at this stage, they said. “Only through experimentation – which can be expensive – do technologies become practical,” Graham says.

Graham and Jusczyk rely on bicycles, rather than trains or buses, for their commute to MIT. But, both students were impressed enough by recent experiences in large crowds – for Graham, the 2003 New York City blackout; for Jusczyk, Boston’s World Cup celebration in City Hall Plaza – to start work on the Farm. The students were inspired as well by an “ingenious little device by Thomas Edison. When visitors came to his house, they passed through a turnstile that pumped water into his holding tank,” says Graham. In addition, they were guided by their advisor, Associate Professor J. Meejin Yoon, who helped them take their proposal from the power-stool to the Crowd Farm.